Brent crude once fell 10%, as the market bets on de-escalation of the Iran situation.

Brent crude briefly fell 10% on November 5 after the U.S. midterm elections, as markets priced in a de-escalation of the Iran conflict. Vice President Vance publicly attributed Republicans’ election losses to the Iran war, and Senate Democratic leader Schumer pledged to push for ending it, fueling expectations that the Trump administration will pursue diplomacy over escalation. Analysts including the Atlantic Council’s Ben Cahill, Raymond James’s Pavel Molchanov and Marshall Wace’s Seb Buck said Vance’s remarks reinforced the shift, with traders betting Congress and administration officials may constrain war decisions. It remains unclear whether Vance’s comments signal a genuine softening of U.S. policy toward Iran, and analysts said a sustained oil decline would require a durable diplomatic de-escalation between Washington and Tehran.