The fourth-quarter oil supply forecast was raised by 3.3 million barrels per day, with onshore inventories declining.

The International Energy Agency raised its fourth-quarter global oil supply forecast by 3.3 million barrels per day, projecting the market will flip into surplus, according to its November oil market report. October world oil supply rose by 2.3 million bpd month-over-month to 105.4 million bpd, with higher Gulf crude exports driving the upward revision. Observed global oil stocks increased by 52 million barrels in October, but the build was entirely offshore, with floating volumes up 86 million barrels while onshore inventories fell. The divergence matters because falling land-based stocks and persistent middle-distillate tightness could keep physical markets firmer than the headline surplus suggests. Watch whether the projected surplus materializes in onshore inventories and whether diesel supply constraints ease in coming months.