BTC down 3.7% per week… Year-to-date, differences in Strategy’s BPS and mNAV formulas

Strategy ($MSTR) reported that its per-share bitcoin holdings declined 3.7% as of October 19, even as total BTC holdings grew from 672,500 BTC at the end of 2025 to 848,517 BTC, according to the company's public ledger. The divergence stems from assumed diluted share count expanding faster than coin accumulation, rising from 344.897 million shares to 451.933 million over the same period. In its Q2 SEC filing, the company defined BTC Yield as the period-over-period change in BPS—bitcoin per share—clarifying it is not an investment return or interest earned on bitcoin. The metric distinction between BPS and mNAV calculations matters because per-share accretion, not gross holdings, is the yardstick for whether the bitcoin treasury strategy is dilutive or accretive to common shareholders. Watch for whether future capital raises slow share issuance enough to reverse the per-share decline.