Grayscale Research Head: JPMorgan Gives Bitcoin a 10% Annualized Return Expectation

JPMorgan Asset Management has added bitcoin to its 2027 long-term capital market assumptions with a projected 10% compound annual return, above its 7.5% estimate for U.S. large-cap stocks, 9.8% for private equity, 7% for a 60/40 portfolio and 5.5% for gold, according to Grayscale research head Zach Pandl. The bank assigned bitcoin 55% annualized volatility and kept it out of its main portfolio models, calling it speculative because its correlations with other assets are unstable. Grayscale cited a 33% estimated correlation between bitcoin and U.S. large caps as a reason institutions are paying attention, and said bitcoin's portfolio role is tied to monetary easing, with adoption, regulation and liquidity shaping its economic profile. The inclusion matters as a signal that a major asset manager now assigns a formal long-term return to bitcoin alongside traditional assets.