1-year inflation expectations held at 3.9%... probability of unemployment rate rising at 45.3%

The New York Fed’s October Survey of Consumer Expectations showed median one-year inflation expectations unchanged at 3.9%, while the mean perceived probability of higher unemployment a year ahead rose to 45.3%. The survey, conducted October 1–31, distinguishes the median inflation reading from the averaged probability-based employment measure. The steady inflation expectation follows September’s 0.3-point and 0.1-point increases in one- and three-year expectations, respectively. The data matter because household inflation views feed into Fed policy expectations and consumer spending behavior. Watch next for whether the elevated unemployment-probability reading persists and whether it begins to pull inflation expectations lower.