Bitcoin fails to settle at $76,000... SOPR 0.99

Bitcoin failed to hold above $76,000, pulling back to $75,650 after briefly touching $76,200 on Bybit’s futures market, with the short-term holder spent output profit ratio (STH-SOPR) at 0.99—below the break-even level of 1. The sub-1 reading indicates that coins moved by short-term holders were, on average, at a loss, signaling weak near-term conviction. Exchange-held ERC20 stablecoin balances have also fallen roughly 34% since April, pointing to reduced buying power on trading venues. The combination matters because it suggests the recent rebound lacked the stablecoin fuel and holder profitability needed to sustain a breakout. Next, watch whether BTC can reclaim $76,000 and whether STH-SOPR pushes back above 1, alongside any recovery in exchange stablecoin reserves.