Bridgewater founder Dalio: After the midterm elections, US internal conflict intensifies, possibly pushing up short-term US Treasury yields.

Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio said the U.S. midterm elections will not resolve the country's core problems—debt, wealth and values polarization, geopolitics, climate and technology—and warned that partisan and intra-party infighting and government dysfunction are likely to intensify. He flagged a series of funding flashpoints: the December 11 expiration of Trump's temporary spending measure, federal debt expected to hit its ceiling in March 2027, and the Treasury projected to exhaust its cash-management tools by fall 2027. Dalio said the resulting uncertainty could push up short-term Treasury bill yields and heighten concerns about liquidity and credit risk, eroding Treasuries' status as the world's primary safe collateral. He also noted that Elizabeth Warren's expected chairmanship of the Senate Banking Committee could spark market- and economy-affecting battles, while the results turn Trump into a lame-duck president under attack, weakening the U.S.'s international standing and potentially prompting strategic retrenchment that boosts the influence of China and other regional powers.