PJM auction revenue differs by $5.7 billion... sensitivity analysis excluding data center demand forecast

PJM Interconnection's 2028–2029 capacity auction would have raised $5.73 billion less than the actual $16.41 billion result if 16,436 MW of new data-center demand and projected growth at existing facilities were excluded, according to an Oct. 30 analysis by independent market monitor Monitoring Analytics. The finding matters because it quantifies how much of the record auction outcome rests on forecasts of data-center load growth rather than firm existing demand, a central question for regulators and market participants assessing grid reliability and cost allocation. Watch for how PJM and stakeholders treat data-center forecasts in future capacity auctions and whether the sensitivity analysis influences upcoming reliability and market-design decisions.