Before the release of the "ADP" report, the probability of a Fed rate hike in December was 81.2%.
Original headline“小非农”公布前，美联储 12 月加息的概率为 81.2%
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Ahead of the October US ADP employment report, CME FedWatch data shows markets pricing an 81.2% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in December, with only 18.8% odds of holding rates steady. For January, traders assign a 14% chance of no change, a 65.5% chance of a cumulative 25 basis points of tightening, and a 20.5% chance of 50 basis points. The pricing signals that investors expect the Federal Reserve to keep tightening despite uncertainty about the labor market. The upcoming ADP release is the next key input that could shift these odds.
Muhabbit's AI wrote this summary in its own words from TechFlow's report and translated it from Chinese. It can get details wrong, so check the source.
Named in this story
Federal Reserve, CME FedWatch, ADP employment report