Canada's September surplus is 5.35 billion Canadian dollars... driven by crude oil and gold

Canada’s merchandise trade surplus widened to C$5.35 billion in September, the largest since May 2022, as exports rose 0.2% to C$78.55 billion and imports fell 0.3% to C$73.2 billion, Statistics Canada reported. The surplus was driven by higher crude oil and gold exports even as overall export volumes dropped 4.0% from August, and the prior-month surplus was revised to C$4.95 billion. In the third quarter, exports and imports each edged up 0.2% in value terms but fell 0.6% and 1.6% by volume, with the quarterly goods surplus at C$11.2 billion. The data matter because they signal that Canada’s trade balance is being supported by commodity prices rather than stronger shipment volumes, a distinction that matters for GDP tracking. Next, watch whether crude and gold values hold up and whether falling volumes translate into weaker third-quarter growth.