Calci, dominant candidates won in 479 out of 487 U.S. midterm elections

Kalshi reported that its traders correctly favored the winning candidate in 479 of 487 resolved U.S. midterm races, a 98% hit rate spanning federal congressional, gubernatorial and state-level contests. The prediction market's retrospective covers the 2026 midterms, where traders broadly expected Democrats to capture majorities in both the House and Senate, a call AP also projected. The figure counts races where the heavily favored candidate won rather than measuring how closely individual market-implied probabilities matched actual outcomes, so it is not a direct calibration score. The result matters as a marketing data point for Kalshi and the broader regulated prediction-market sector as it pushes for mainstream credibility against offshore incumbents. What to watch next is whether Kalshi publishes probability-level calibration data and how the platform's volumes and market share hold up through the next major U.S. election cycle.