A post by @WatcherGuru on X.

The Bank of England warned that UK inflation could climb to 6.2% should the Middle East conflict escalate, flagging geopolitical risk as a direct threat to its price-stability outlook. The central bank's scenario implies a sharp acceleration from current inflation levels, underscoring how energy and trade-channel disruptions could feed through to consumer prices. The warning matters because it complicates the rate-cut path markets have priced in, potentially keeping borrowing costs higher for longer. Investors should watch oil prices and shipping routes as the key transmission channels, along with the BoE's next policy meeting for any shift in its inflation projections.