OASI trust fund projected to be depleted by 2032... CBO estimates average annual benefit reduction of 28% from 2033 to 2036

The U.S. Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) trust fund is now projected to be depleted in the fourth quarter of 2032, one quarter earlier than the prior year's estimate of Q1 2033, according to the Social Security Administration's 2026 trustees report released June 9. After depletion, continuing payroll tax receipts would cover only 78% of scheduled benefits, leaving a 22% shortfall. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that from 2033 to 2036, average annual benefits would be roughly 28% lower than scheduled levels. The accelerated depletion date matters because it narrows the window for lawmakers to close the funding gap before automatic across-the-board cuts would otherwise apply. What to watch next is whether Congress advances a financing fix, since the 22% gap does not mandate uniform benefit reductions but reflects the shortfall under current projections.