US October CPI exceeded expectations across the board, hitting the threshold for a significant rate hike mentioned by Waller.

US October core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month and headline CPI climbed 0.4%, both exceeding expectations, though the BLS did not publish year-over-year figures because data collection was disrupted during last October's government shutdown. The report lands before the midterm elections, with price pressures amplified this year by the Iran war, tariffs and a data-center boom. It is the last CPI reading Fed officials will see before their December 8-9 policy meeting, and investors expect a rate hike there. Fed Governor Waller had said beforehand that a core CPI increase of 0.3% or more could warrant a 50-basis-point hike, a threshold this report appears to meet. Markets will now watch whether the Fed delivers that larger move at its December meeting.