Will the interest rate cut continue? Critical assessment from major institutions

Turkish markets are leaning toward another 100 basis-point rate cut from the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (TCMB) in December despite October inflation printing above forecasts, according to a Matriks News compilation of views from 16 institutions. The median 2026 year-end inflation expectation among those institutions stands at 29.8%. Views are split, with some houses expecting further easing while others see the policy rate held steady, citing energy prices and a decline in reserves. The split matters because it signals uncertainty over how far the TCMB will loosen policy while inflation remains elevated. Investors will watch the December rate decision and upcoming inflation and reserve data for confirmation of the easing path.