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Democrats swept Congress in the midterm elections, prompting prediction markets to sharply reduce expectations for a December Federal Reserve rate hike. December hike odds fell from above 80% to 67%, while the implied probability of a hold rose to 33%, the highest level since mid-September. The shift reflects traders reassessing the policy path after the election outcome altered the political backdrop for monetary policy. Markets will now watch incoming economic data and Fed communications for confirmation of whether a December pause gains further traction.

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Federal Reserve, Democratic Party, Walter Bloomberg