Possibility of rising US short-term Treasury yields; Dalio points to fiscal conflict

Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio warned in a Substack post dated November 9 that U.S. short-term Treasury yields could rise if partisan and intra-party conflict intensifies after the midterm elections, arguing the vote only changes who handles the country's structural problems and how. Dalio identified government debt, wealth inequality and value divisions, geopolitics, climate and technology as the core structural issues facing the U.S. He projected federal debt will hit the statutory limit in March 2027, with Treasury's funding tools exhausted by autumn 2027. The warning matters because short-dated bills roll over frequently, tying fiscal costs directly to interest-rate shifts. Investors should watch post-election fiscal negotiations and debt-ceiling positioning for signals on bill supply and yields.