Following a sudden GOP slide, a top data scientist’s model gives Democrats 90% odds of taking the Senate as Kansas trends blue in major shock

A leading data scientist's election model now gives Democrats a 90% chance of winning control of the Senate, following a sudden polling shift that has put traditionally red Kansas in play. Sen. Roger Marshall (R-KS), who held roughly a 75% re-election probability just two months ago, has seen his odds collapse to 43.9%, including a 7.1 percentage-point drop in the past 24 hours alone. The sharp deterioration in Republican standing suggests a broader GOP slide that could flip a seat long considered safe and reshape the Senate map. The model's movement matters because Senate control determines the balance of power for confirming nominees and advancing legislation in the next Congress. Investors and political observers will be watching whether Kansas continues trending Democratic and whether similar late-breaking shifts emerge in other contested states.