BIS presents possibility of technology-based bank assets reaching 3-27% in 10 years

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) said in Working Paper No. 1391 that technology-based new bank models could hold between 3% and 27% of banking-sector assets within a decade, based on an analysis of roughly 9,000 banks across more than 150 jurisdictions. Traditional banks would retain about three-quarters of assets under every scenario, but could face sharper change in customer-facing areas such as payments and lending. The paper splits bank business models into three traditional and three emerging technology-driven types, and stresses the ranges are scenario outcomes rather than forecasts, contingent on technology, regulation and consumer preferences. Technology-based models currently account for less than 2% of total banking assets. The findings matter because they frame how much of the incumbents' balance sheet and customer relationships could shift to tech-native entrants. What to watch next is how regulation and consumer adoption shape whether the outcome lands near the low or high end of the range.