U.S.-Iran talks may achieve a breakthrough; Trump says

Oil prices fell sharply as US-Iran talks reportedly reached a breakthrough, with Qatari-mediated negotiations said to have removed formal obstacles and an initial agreement possible within hours, according to Lebanese media. The development came amid escalating regional tensions: explosions were heard on Iran's Qeshm Island, Iran's Revolutionary Guard said 11 tankers have caught fire in the Hormuz area since October 25, and the UK Maritime Trade Operations reported a tanker struck by two flying objects near Saudi Arabia. President Trump said Iran wants a deal, denied planning another strike after the midterm elections, and declared oil prices falling "like a stone," while Iran said it could reopen the strait within two days if conditions are met. Israel's intelligence, however, assessed that Iran's negotiating position has not substantively changed and that war is closer than a deal. Markets are watching for a formal announcement of the preliminary agreement and whether the Strait of Hormuz reopens, a key determinant for crude supply and prices.