Trader degentrading: Semiconductor stocks plunge in pre-market, trapped positions may limit rebound, bullish on Chinese tech stocks and crypto market

Trader degentrading said semiconductor stocks are set up for a capped rebound because a large pool of trapped longs will sell near breakeven unless a painful liquidation forces a V-shaped recovery, with buybacks a possible alternative and MU the only name able to act before the CHIPS Act ban expires on Dec 9. The trader cited Citrini's view that AI capex growth has peaked even as spending continues, while flagging H100 rental rates up 26% year over year and GB200 up 50%, alongside ORCL's 98% AI infrastructure utilization, as evidence against the compute-depreciation thesis. In China tech, BABA's roughly 10% gain could mark a turning point given historically low valuations, with further policy measures a potential catalyst for a strong reversal. In crypto, the trader said BTC is strong and ZEC has held its gains, arguing that a more hostile government stance would reinforce the "money away from the state" narrative while policy support would weaken its core backers.