Prediction market traders conduct direct voter polls ahead of U.S. midterm elections

Traders on prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket are conducting in-person voter research in Maine and Los Angeles ahead of the US midterm elections, supplementing polls and early-voting data with field interviews to inform their election contract positions. Bloomberg reported that traders, including former economics professor and Democrat Douglas Campbell, are canvassing voters directly—a shift from relying solely on aggregated survey responses. The practice highlights how prediction market contract prices, which reflect traders' collective judgment on event outcomes, differ fundamentally from traditional polling, and how participants are seeking an informational edge as election-related volumes grow on these platforms. The development underscores the growing influence of prediction markets in US election forecasting, a space where Kalshi operates as a CFTC-regulated exchange and Polymarket has drawn significant trading activity. Watch for whether such field research becomes a standard practice among market participants and how contract prices on both platforms move as early-voting data accumulates toward Election Day.