Over 2 years, non-employer applications in AI-exposed industries increased 26.8%

Nonemployer business applications in AI-exposed U.S. sectors rose 26.8% over the two years since Q1 2024, according to a Mercatus Center study released July 17 analyzing Census Bureau business formation statistics and labor market surveys. The AI-exposed category covers professional services, information, education, finance and insurance; total applications in these sectors grew 18.0% while employer-type applications fell 6.4%. The metric tracks applications classified as unlikely to become employers at filing, not actual growth in businesses without employees. By contrast, nonemployer applications in construction and wholesale, the comparison group, edged up just 0.4%. The findings matter because they suggest AI adoption may be shifting new business formation toward solo, contractor-style ventures rather than hiring firms. Watch whether the gap between nonemployer and employer applications persists as AI tools spread and whether it shows up in actual self-employment levels.