US October fiscal deficit $409 billion... up $125 billion from a year earlier

The U.S. federal government ran an estimated $409 billion budget deficit in October 2026, the first month of fiscal 2027, up $125 billion from the same month a year earlier, the Congressional Budget Office reported. October receipts fell $36 billion year over year while outlays rose $89 billion, with the widening gap driven by both lower revenue and higher spending. Part of the increase reflects timing: some federal payments scheduled for November 1 were shifted into October because that date fell on a weekend in both 2025 and 2026. The monthly figure matters as an early signal of the fiscal trajectory for the new budget year, which follows a full-year fiscal 2026 deficit of roughly $1.9 trillion. Investors will watch subsequent CBO monthly reports to see whether the October deterioration persists once payment-timing effects wash out.