CME FedWatch: Probability of a Fed rate hike in December rises to 84.4%

CME FedWatch data now puts the probability of a December rate hike to the 4%–4.25% range at 84.4%, with only 15.6% odds of rates staying unchanged. The shift in fed funds futures pricing comes as spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. recorded $1.28 billion in net outflows for the week ended November 6, the largest weekly redemption since late June, according to SoSoValue. The combination matters because tighter policy expectations are coinciding with heavy ETF selling, a potential drag on crypto liquidity and sentiment. Traders will watch the next round of Fed communication and weekly ETF flow data to see whether hike odds keep climbing and whether outflows persist or reverse.