52% probability of reaching $70,000 or below… differs from Bitcoin's year-end closing price

Polymarket traders on Feb. 8 (Korea time) priced a 52% chance that bitcoin touches $70,000 or below at some point before the end of 2026, with the same market assigning 31% to a drop to $65,000 or less, 18% to $60,000 or less, and just 9% to a move above $100,000. The figure comes from a price-touch contract, not a year-end close contract, so it cannot be read directly as a year-end forecast; Kalshi runs a separate year-end price-range market that settles on the final price. The overlap matters because the lower strike contracts on Polymarket nest inside the $70,000 threshold, meaning the headline number reflects any intraday dip rather than where BTC finishes the year. Traders should watch the gap between touch-probability markets and Kalshi's expiry-range pricing to gauge whether the bearish tilt is a transient wick or a sustained year-end view.