98% success rate for prediction markets in US elections - What will it be for the presidential elections in France?
Original headline98 % de réussite pour les marchés prédictifs lors des élections américaines - Qu'en sera-t-il pour les élections présidentielles en France ?
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Prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi correctly anticipated 98% of outcomes in the U.S. midterm elections, according to the report. The two platforms have drawn attention for their accuracy in forecasting political results ahead of the vote. The article questions whether similar predictive performance can be expected for France's next presidential election. It frames the French race as the next major test of whether prediction-market pricing can match the U.S. track record.
Muhabbit's AI wrote this summary in its own words from Cryptoast's report and translated it from French. It can get details wrong, so check the source.
Named in this story
Polymarket, Kalshi, US midterm elections, French presidential elections