Inflation exceeded expectations: Expectation of a 100 basis point cut from the CBRT

October inflation in Turkey exceeded expectations, shifting market focus to the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's (TCMB) December rate decision. A survey of 16 institutions compiled by Matriks Haber shows a 100 basis-point rate cut is the leading expectation for the December 10 meeting. Some institutions, however, expect a pause in easing due to rising energy prices and risks to reserves. The split matters because it signals uncertainty over how far the TCMB will loosen policy despite sticky inflation. Investors will watch the December 10 decision and any guidance on the pace of future cuts.