Gulf crude oil exports at about 12 million barrels... Full normalization of the strait in 2027 expected to be difficult

Gulf crude exporters shipped about 12 million barrels per day in September and the first 20 days of October, down from roughly 18 million bpd before the war, Rystad Energy said in a market update, warning that oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz are unlikely to return to full pre-war normalcy even by 2027. The firm cited rising shipping disruptions and transport costs alongside the partial export recovery, while noting the 12 million bpd figure reflects Gulf producers' crude exports rather than total volumes transiting the strait. The IEA's October oil market report put overall oil flows through Hormuz at 10.9 million bpd in September, Gulf crude exports at 13.9 million bpd and volumes routed around the strait as a further share. The gap between current export levels and pre-war norms underscores how much supply remains offline, keeping freight and insurance costs elevated. Watch whether Hormuz transit volumes and Gulf export loadings continue to recover through the fourth quarter, and whether shipping disruptions ease enough to narrow the spread between seaborne and pre-war logistics costs.